Dividend Stock “On Sale” 29-May-2020

* Data from Stockcharts.com and YahooFinance

** Monthly closes must be less than 15% above the 60-month moving average, and companies must have a 5-year dividend growth rate ≥ 3.5% or consecutive dividend increases ≥ 10 years

*** Monthly closes that are the lowest in a 1 year or more; are below the moving average; have corrected 40% or more from the highest monthly close in the last five years; or have an RSI(14M) value less than 40 are considered to be “On Sale”

**** Closes that are the lowest in a 5 years or more; are 15% below the moving average; have corrected 50% or more from the highest monthly close in the last 5 years; or have an RSI(14M) value less than 30 are considered to be “Oversold”

Dividends “Oversold”

  • Wells Fargo (WFC) – Financial: Money Center Bank
    • 8 years of consecutive dividend increases
    • 5 year dividend growth rate:  7%
    • Forward dividend yield:  7.71%
    • RSI(14M):  29.50
    • Lowest monthly close in 7 years
    • Monthly close 41% below 60-month moving average
    • 55% correction from highest monthly close in 5 years
  • Exxon Mobil (XOM) – Energy: Integrated Oil & Gas
    • 37 years of consecutive dividend increases (Aristocrat)
    • 5 year dividend growth rate:  5%
    • Forward dividend yield:  7.65%
    • RSI(14M): 35.01
    • Monthly close 34% below 60-month moving average
    • 42% correction from highest monthly close in 5 years
  • Cracker Barrel (CBRL) – Consumer: Casual Dining Restaurant
    • 17 years of consecutive dividend increases (Achiever)
    • 5 year dividend growth rate:  8%
    • Forward dividend yield:  4.85%
    • RSI(14M):  38.68.
    • Monthly close 20% below 60-month moving average
    • 36% correction from highest monthly close in 5 years
  • U S Bancorp (USB) – Financial: Regional Bank
    • 8 years of consecutive dividend increases
    • 5 year dividend growth rate:  10%
    • Forward dividend yield:  4.72%
    • RSI(14M):  35.56
    • Monthly close 22% below 60-month moving average
    • 40% correction from highest monthly close in 5 years
  • Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) – Consumer: Pharmacy
    • 44 years of consecutive dividend increases (Aristocrat)
    • 5 year dividend growth rate:  7%
    • Forward dividend yield:  4.27%
    • RSI(14M):  35.71
    • Monthly close 35% below 60-month moving average
    • 50% correction from highest monthly close in 5 years
  • UGI Corp (UGI) – Utility: Natural Gas/Propane
    • 32 years of consecutive dividend increases (Aristocrat)
    • 5 year dividend growth rate:  9%
    • Forward dividend yield:  4.08%
    • RSI(14M):  34.80
    • Monthly close 26% below 60-month moving average
    • 42% correction from highest monthly close in 5 years
  • Cincinnati Financial (CINF)– Financial:  Property/Casualty Insurance
    • 59 years of consecutive dividend increases (King)
    • 5 year dividend growth rate:  5%
    • Forward dividend yield:  4.07%
    • RSI(14M):  31.06
    • Lowest monthly close in 4 years
    • Monthly close 19% below 60-month moving average
    • 49% correction from highest monthly close in 5 years
  • V F Corp (VFC)– Consumer: Apparel
    • 47 years of consecutive dividend increases (Aristocrat)
    • 5 year dividend growth rate:  14%
    • Forward dividend yield:  3.42%
    • Monthly close 17% below 60-month moving average
    • 43% correction from highest monthly close in 5 years
  • Fedex Corp (FDX) – Transportation:  Integrated  Freight/Delivery
    • 17 years of consecutive dividend increases (Achiever)
    • 5 year dividend growth rate:  28%
    • Forward dividend yield:  1.99%
    • RSI(14M):  37.04
    • Monthly close 27% below 60-month moving average
    • 49% correction from highest monthly close in 5 years

Dividends “On Sale”

  • Iron Mountain (IRM)– REIT: Data Storage/Security
    • 10 years of consecutive dividend increases (Achiever)
    • 5 year dividend growth rate:  11%
    • Forward dividend yield:  9.60%
    • Monthly close 9% below 60-month moving average
  • AT&T (T) – Utility: Communication Technology/Media
    • 35 years of consecutive dividend increases (Aristocrat)
    • 5 year dividend growth rate:  2%
    • Forward dividend yield:  6.74%
    • Monthly close 1% below 60-month moving average
  • Chevron (CVX) – Energy: Integrated Oil & Gas
    • 32 years of consecutive dividend increases (Aristocrat)
    • 5 year dividend growth rate:  3%
    • Forward dividend yield:  5.63%
    • Monthly close 6% below 60-month moving average
  • Old Republic (ORI) – Financial:  Property/Casualty Insurance
    • 38 years of consecutive dividend increases (Aristocrat)
    • 5 year dividend growth rate:  2%
    • Forward dividend yield:  5.39%
    • RSI(14M): 35.90
    • Monthly close 10% below 60-month moving average
  • IBM (IBM) – Technology: Information Technology
    • 24 years of consecutive dividend increases (Achiever)
    • 5 year dividend growth rate:  9%
    • Forward dividend yield:  5.22%
    • Monthly close 4% below 60-month moving average
  • Consolidated Edison (ED) – Utility: Electricity
    • 45 years of consecutive dividend increases (Aristocrat)
    • 5 year dividend growth rate:  3%
    • Forward dividend yield:  4.08%
    • Lowest monthly close in 1 year
  • 3M Company (MMM) – Industrial: Conglomerate
    • 61 years of consecutive dividend increases (King)
    • 5 year dividend growth rate:  11%
    • Forward dividend yield:  3.76%
    • Monthly close 8% below 60-month moving average
  • Genuine Parts (GPC) – Consumer:  Retail – Auto Parts [NAPA]
    • 63 years of consecutive dividend increases (King)
    • 5 year dividend growth rate:  6%
    • Forward dividend yield:  3.79%
    • Monthly close 5% below 60-month moving average
  • Cullen Frost Bankers (CFR) – Financial: Regional Bank
    • 26 years of consecutive dividend increases (Achiever)
    • 5 year dividend growth rate:  7%
    • Forward dividend yield:  3.74%
    • Monthly close 5% below 60-month moving average

Create Your Own Dividend Business

Dividend Stocks “On Sale” – 30 Aug 2019

DIVIDENDS ON SALE AUGUST 2019 (EXCEL)

DIVIDENDS ON SALE AUGUST 2019 (PDF)

** NOTE:  Kraft Heinz (KHC) is included this month but only those with a very long-term outlook, a higher risk tolerance, and an ample supply of patience should consider this “turn around” company as an investment.

Create Your Own Dividend Business

Monthly Stock Report: 30 April 2019

Overall the stock market continues to edge higher with the S&P 500 moving beyond its previous high of 2940.91 over the last few days.  As such, most stocks have moved higher as well, leaving very few dividend stocks in the “on sale” zone.

*All values and prices presented below are based on split adjusted prices only and do not include dividend adjusted prices.  As a result, prices presented which involve past prices in calculations might not match those found in other sources.  Here a two discussions concerning “adjusted” prices.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/adjusted_closing_price.asp

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/07/dividend_implications.asp

**RSI – Relative Strength Index.  RSI is a price momentum technical indicator.  RSI values can be reported as differing values due to different periods and smoothing factors employed in their calculation.  The RSI presented here is for 14 months and smoothed (weighted) for 14 periods.  Here is a discussion of RSI.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rsi.asp

 

Category 1 (Utilities & REITs)

AT&T (T)

  • Diversified telecommunications & entertainment media
  • Close:  $30.96
  • Dividend yield:  6.5%
  • Dividend yield is 18% above 5 year median of 5.5%
  • 34 consecutive calendar year dividend increases
  • 7 year dividend growth:  +2%
  • 7 year price growth:  -1%
  • 7 year div growth > 7 year price growth is an on sale factor
  • RSI (14):  42.5  (< 50 considered on sale)
  • C/M:  -13% to the 60 month moving average of $35.78  (< 0% on sale)
  • C/M value of -13% is less than the 5 year median of -11%
  • 28% correction from 5 year high monthly close of $43.29 (July 2017)
  • AT&T has underperformed the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by 9% over the last year
  • 14% below the 60 month high-low monthly close midpoint price of $35.93

AT&T has moved up from its December 2018 low monthly close of $28.56 but still has an attractive dividend yield with numerous other “on sale” values as well.   AT&T is working its way through its merger with Time Warner and has incurred significant debt as a result.  AT&T has a reported free cash flow per share value of $4.49 versus a forward dividend of $2.04 creating a free cash payout ratio 45%, which supports the safety of its dividend going forward.

AT&T is at an attractive entry point for those looking to collect and reinvest dividends.

 

Category 2 (Industrial Finished Products)

NONE

 

Category 3 (Industrial Related Products and Services)

Albemarle Corp (ALB)

  • Specialty chemicals, precursors & minerals for industrial manufacturing
  • Close:  $75.06
  • Dividend yield:  1.8%
  • Dividend yield is 29% above 5 year median of 1.4%
  • 25 consecutive calendar year dividend increases
  • 7 year dividend growth:  +10%
  • 7 year price growth:  +2%
  • 7 year div growth > 7 year price growth is an on sale factor
  • Lowest monthly close in 2 years
  • RSI (14):  32.1  (< 50 considered on sale)
  • C/M:  -9% to the 60 month moving average of $82.08  (< 0% on sale)
  • 47% correction from 5 year high monthly close of $140.89 (Oct 2017) [≥ 30% on sale]
  • Albermarle has underperformed the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by 22% over the last year
  • 19% below the 60 month high-low monthly close midpoint price of $92.50

Albemarle has moved lower from its December 2018 low monthly close of $77.02 and has a moderately attractive dividend yield with numerous other “on sale” values as well.   Albemarle has a reported  total cash per share value of $21 which is significantly higher than its forward dividend of $1.47, providing a large degree of dividend safety.

Albemarle is at an attractive entry point for those looking to collect and reinvest dividends, especially for those with a long term time frame.

 

Category 4 (Consumer Necessities)

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA)

  • Pharmacy & consumer health services
  • Close:  $53.57
  • Dividend yield:  3.0%
  • Dividend yield is 58% above 5 year median of 1.9%
  • 43 consecutive calendar year dividend increases
  • 7 year dividend growth:  +11%
  • 7 year price growth:  +6%
  • 7 year div growth > 7 year price growth is an on sale factor
  • Lowest monthly close in 5 years
  • RSI (14):  32.8  (<50 considered on sale)
  • C/M:  -30% to the 60 month moving average of $76.33  (≤ -30% oversold)
  • C/M value of -30% is less than the 5 year median of -9%
  • 45% correction from 5 year high monthly close of $96.63 (July 2015) [≥ 30% on sale]
  • 45% correction is greater than the 5 year median of 35%
  • Walgreens has underperformed the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by 38% over the last year (≤ -30% oversold)
  • 31% below the 60 month high-low monthly close midpoint price of $77.95 (≥ 30% oversold)

Walgreens is making a significant new low close with a correction that is near the 50% level from its 5 year high monthly close.  The current dividend yield is very attractive versus the recent 5 year median.  Walgreens has a reported free cash flow per share value of $4.40 versus a forward dividend of $1.56 creating a free cash payout ratio greater than 100%, which solidly supports the safety of its dividend going forward.

Walgreens Boots Alliance is at a very attractive entry point for those looking to collect and reinvest dividends.

 

Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY)

  • Pharmaceuticals & diversified consumer health
  • Close:  $46.43
  • Dividend yield:  3.4%
  • Dividend yield is 13% above 5 year median of 3.0%
  • 12 consecutive calendar year dividend increases
  • 7 year dividend growth:  +3%
  • 7 year price growth:  – 0.5%
  • 7 year div growth > 7 year price growth is an on sale factor
  • Lowest monthly close in 5 years
  • RSI (14):  30.6  (< 0 considered on sale)
  • C/M:  -21% to the 60 month moving average of $58.80  (< 0% on sale)
  • C/M value of -21% is less than the 5 year median of -18%
  • 38% correction from 5 year high monthly close of $74.81 (July 2016) [≥ 30% on sale]
  • 38% correction is greater than the 5 year median of 31%
  • Bristol-Myerss has underperformed the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by 26% over the last year
  • 24% below the 60 month high-low monthly close midpoint price of $61.26

Bristol-Myers is currently pursuing a merger with the biopharmaceutical company Celgene (CELG), which has put downward pressure on the stock.  Bristol-Myers has a reported free cash flow per share value of $2.57 versus a forward dividend of $1.64 creating a free cash payout ratio of 57%, which solidly supports the safety of its dividend going forward.

Bristol-Myers Squibb is at a very attractive entry point for those looking to collect and reinvest dividends.

 

CVS Health (CVS)

  • Pharmacy services, consumer health, and health insurance plans
  • Close:  $54.58
  • Dividend yield:  3.5%
  • Dividend yield is 233% above 5 year median of 1.5%
  • CVS Health has maintained its quarterly dividend at 0.50¢ since January 2018
  • 7 year dividend growth:  +19%
  • 7 year price growth:  +3%
  • 7 year div growth > 7 year price growth is an on sale factor
  • One month removed from its lowest monthly close in 6 years of $53.93
  • RSI (14):  33.6  (< 0 considered on sale)
  • C/M:  -35% to the 60 month moving average of $83.17  (≤ -30% oversold)
  • C/M value of -35% is less than the 5 year median of -10%
  • 52% correction from 5 year high monthly close of $112.47 (July 2015) [≥ 50% oversold]
  • 52% correction is greater than the 5 year median of 42%
  • Bristol-Myerss has underperformed the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by 33% over the last year (≤ -30% oversold)
  • 35% below the 60 month high-low monthly close midpoint price of $83.20 (≥ 30% oversold)

CVS Health is working through its recent merger with the Aetna Insurance, which has put downward pressure on the stock.  CVS Health has a reported free cash flow per share value of $9.52 versus a forward dividend of $2.00 creating a free cash payout ratio well above 100%, which solidly supports its dividend going forward.

CVS Health is at a very attractive entry point for those looking to collect and reinvest dividends over the long term.

 

Kraft Heinz (KHC)

  • Branded packaged foods
  • Close:  $33.24
  • Dividend yield:  4.8%
  • Dividend yield is 50% above 5 year median of 3.2%
  • Recently reduced the quarterly dividend from 0.625¢ to 0.40¢
  • 5 year dividend growth:  +2%
  • 5 year price growth:  -4%
  • 7 year div growth > 7 year price growth is an on sale factor
  • RSI (14):  19.0  (< 30 oversold)
  • C/M:  -53% to the 60 month moving average of $71.15  (≤ -30% oversold)
  • C/M value of -30% is less than the 5 year median of -24%
  • 64% correction from 5 year high monthly close of $92.20 (May 2017) [≥ 50% oversold]
  • 65% correction is greater than the 5 year median of 40%
  • Kraft Heinz has underperformed the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by 48% over the last year (≤ -30% oversold)
  • 47% below the 60 month high-low monthly close midpoint price of $62.54 (≥ 30% oversold)

Here’s an article from The Motley Fool discussing Kraft Heinz.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/kraft-heinz-value-stock-falling-144500363.html

Kraft Heinz has stabilized around $32 over the past 2 months and is still oversold via multiple technical signals, which is not surprising considering its recent 15 billion dollar accounting write down and 35% dividend reduction.  Kraft Heinz has a reported total cash per share value of $3.72 which is significantly higher than its forward dividend of $1.60.  While it obviously didn’t stop the dividend reduction, it should give investors some sense of dividend security going forward.  Kraft Heinz is going to continue to sell its products, making billions of dollars as it does.  Dividend reductions and bad news from legacy-type companies often provide superior investment entry points for those with a long-term view.

For those less risk averse investors, Kraft Heinz is at a potentially good long-term entry point.